For CDC’s own surveys to generate high estimates of DGU prevalence was clearly not helpful to efforts to enact stricter controls over firearms, since it implies that some such measures might disarm people who otherwise would have been able to use a gun for self-protection. One possible explanation:Īnother factor, however, might also have played a role in the decision of CDC personnel to not report the DGU findings. Kleck offers some ideas in his original paper. (Public domain image, courtesy Wikipedia.) (Public domain image, courtesy Wikipedia.)ģ) We don’t know why the CDC chose not to publish that data from the 1990s. It would make sense that the numbers of DGUs has likely increased as well.ĬDC′s “Tom Harkin Global Communications Center” located on the organization′s Roybal Campus in. The numbers of Americans with legal concealed weapons permits has increased dramatically from the 1990s to today, as more states have adopted laws allowing such permits.
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So what can Americans interested in rational gun policy make of this?ġ) We still don’t really know how many defensive gun uses (DGUs) there are each year.ĭoherty offers his own analysis of reasons why reported numbers might be both too low or too high in his 2015 article, “ How to Count the Defensive Use of Guns.”Ģ) The number of DGUs has likely increased since the 1990s. The bottom line is that it’s good to know that the original Kleck and Gertz survey replicated - approximately 1% of adult Americans did report a defensive gun use in the 1990s - but the real issue is the interpretation of the survey and for that a replication doesn’t help. Since defensive gun use is relatively uncommon under any reasonable scenario there are many more opportunities to miscode in a way that inflates defensive gun use than there are ways to miscode in a way that deflates defensive gun use. The deep problem, however, is not miscodings per se but that miscodings of rare events are likely to be asymmetric. On the other hand, mischievous responders might report a defensive gun use just because that makes them sound cool. Some people might be unwilling to answer because a defensive gun use might have been illegal (Would these people refuse to answer?). People answering surveys can be mistaken and some lie and the reasons go both ways. But for now Kleck has pulled the original paper from the web pending his rethinking the data and his conclusions.įurthermore, economist Alex Tabarrok has noted an interesting issue of statistics in his blog post, “ Defensive Gun Use and the Difficult Statistics of Rare Events“: population.) Informed of this, Kleck says he will recalculate the degree to which CDC’s survey work indeed matches or corroborates his, and we will publish a discussion of those fresh results when they come in. (Those states, from 2000 census data, contained around 27 percent of the U.S. From VerBruggen’s own looks at CDC’s raw data, it seems that over the course of the three years, the following 15 states were surveyed: Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, Montana, Ohio, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. It was pointed out to me by Robert VerBruggen of National Review that Kleck treats the CDC’s surveys discussed in this paper as if they were national in scope, as Kleck’s original survey was, but they apparently were not. You will note the original link doesn’t work right now. As reported by Reason editor Brian Doherty:
Subsequently, Kleck removed this version of the paper, although a copy of the original can be found here.
as a whole CDC’s survey data imply that defensive uses of guns by crime victims are far more common than offensive uses by criminals. Estimates based on CDC’s surveys confirm estimates for the same sets of states based on data from the 1993 National Self-Defense Survey (Kleck and Gertz 1995). Analysis of the raw data allows the estimation of the prevalence of DGU for those areas. In 1996, 1997, and 1998, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) conducted large-scale surveys asking about defensive gun use (DGU) in four to six states. Kleck looked at some previously unpublished results from the CDC surveys conducted in the 1990s and concluded:
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